Donald Trump's Ukraine Peace Plan Constitutes a Gift to Vladimir Putin

For a brief period, the former US president seemed to take a strong approach on the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing threats of "significant consequences" during the summer should Russia's president persisted hindering ceasefire negotiations, the former president ultimately imposed substantial restrictions on Russia's primary petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move substantially impacted Putin's capability to fund his war effort in Ukraine.

But, through his recently unveiled detailed peace initiative for the conflict, that was created by American and Russian diplomats without Ukraine's or EU input, the former president has apparently gone back to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Invasion

The former president's proposal would in practice favor the Russian leader for attacking a sovereign nation while placing the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Although strong declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be confirmed", significant aspects of the initiative in reality undermine that essential sovereignty. Seen as a Kremlin dream would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his real-estate experience, the former president persists to treat the situation in Ukraine as a basic land disagreement, like ceding Russia a part of Ukrainian territory will please the leader. However, Russia's invasion is not only about controlling a destroyed swath of deindustrialized territory in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious desire to eliminate it so it stops serves as an appealing model for the Russian citizens of the responsible leadership that Putin's growing autocracy prevents them.

Territorial Surrenders

Although keeping in place the already separated regions of these areas, Trump's proposal would compel Ukraine to abandon the whole Donetsk province. Beyond benefiting Russia with territory that its military have been unable to occupy in over a ten years of warfare, this surrender would make Ukraine's defenses critically compromised.

Donetsk is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the fortified defensive positions that are a key impediment to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these positions, leaving Putin a unobstructed way to Kyiv if he subsequently decide to restart the hostilities.

Armed Forces Reductions

Additionally, in a action that would make renewed fighting easier for the Russian military, Trump would require the nation to diminish the size of its military from their current large number soldiers to a limit of 600,000. Significantly, the plan sets no equivalent constraints on Russian forces.

Apparently as a concession to Russia's attempts to portray the nation's legitimate leadership as radicals, Trump's proposal asserts: "Any Nazi belief system and practices must be condemned and forbidden." Apparently to underscore this aspect, it insists that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a truce. At the same time, Trump imposes no condition that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by holding votes in his own country.

Protection Assurances

Certainly, the initiative has the Russian Federation commit not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in legislation its stance of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". But considering that Putin has violated comparable agreements in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia pledged to respect the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a truce and a return of seized territory in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – why should the international community have confidence in Putin now?

This explains Ukraine has been so insistent on international protection assurances. While the plan promises a "immediate coordinated military response" should Russia resume its aggression, and includes that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the specifics vary from unclear to alarming. The plan would not just prevent the nation accession to NATO but also prevent Nato members from positioning forces on Ukrainian territory, thus blocking the reassurance force, reportedly commanded by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to prevent Russia from rebuilding his weakened military, restocking, and attacking again.

Global Concern

A separate side agreement according to sources would offer the nation with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any later "major, intentional, and ongoing aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an assault endangering the tranquility of the transatlantic community." This implies a military response. But unlike a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary protection against future invasion – the effectiveness of the side agreement would rely on the willingness of Nato leaders, including the US administration, to act militarily to Putin's attacks, an action they have {not