Surfaces, Bowling Tools and Reserves – The Areas Where the Ashes Will Be Won and Lost

Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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